H1B Lottery Chances Calculator (2026)
Estimate your H1B lottery selection odds under the 2026 wage-weighted system — by wage level, US master's cap and registrations. Free, with the math shown.
Your estimated H1B lottery odds
| Draw | Your entries | Est. chance | Running total |
|---|
Estimate only. Assumes the weighted pool averages 2 entries per beneficiary, a ~30% US-master's share of the pool, and a 28,000-selection master's draw. Real FY2027 pool size and wage mix are unknown, so treat the percentage as a rough sense of scale — see “How this calculator estimates your odds” below. Multiple registrations must come from genuine, independent job offers; fraudulent parallel filings lead to denial or revocation.
How the H1B Lottery Works in 2026
Each spring, US employers register foreign professionals for the H1B lottery — the electronic selection for the 85,000 annual cap-subject H1B visas (65,000 regular cap plus 20,000 reserved for US advanced-degree holders, the masters cap). For the FY2027 season, the registration window ran March 4–19, 2026, each registration cost the $215 employer-paid fee, USCIS announced selections by March 31, 2026, employers of selected beneficiaries filed full petitions from April 1 through June 30, 2026, and approved workers can begin cap-subject employment on October 1, 2026. If you need the full timeline and filing steps, see our H1B cap lottery guide and the current H1B processing times for 2026.
The big change for 2026 is how winners are picked. A Department of Homeland Security final rule published December 29, 2025 and effective February 27, 2026 replaced the purely random draw with a wage-weighted selection: each registration is assigned 1–4 entries depending on whether the offered wage meets the Department of Labor prevailing wage Level I, II, III or IV for that occupation and work location. The goal, in the government's words, is to favor higher-skilled, higher-paid workers while keeping every wage level eligible. A second structural fact still applies from the FY2025 reform: selection is beneficiary-centric, meaning USCIS selects unique people rather than registrations, which killed the old tactic of flooding the pool with duplicate filings for one person — duplicate registrations for the same beneficiary by related entities can be denied. Compare the H1B route with alternatives in our L1 vs H1B comparison, or sanity-check other US costs with our visa calculator and the US visa guide.
2026 Wage-Weight Table: Entries per Registration
Weighting uses the highest DOL wage level your offered salary meets or exceeds for your SOC occupation code and area of employment — not the experience your role merely requires. If your salary clears Level III pay for a junior-titled role, it still earns 3 entries; if it sits below Level I but is supported by an acceptable alternative wage source, it can still be registered with a single entry.
| Wage level met | Entries in the draw | Typical profile | Relative weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Level I | 1 | Entry-level, recent graduates | 1× |
| Level II | 2 | Qualified, some experience | 2× |
| Level III | 3 | Experienced specialists | 3× |
| Level IV | 4 | Fully competent / senior experts | 4× |
Critical compliance note: the wage level, SOC code and work location you claim at registration must match the Labor Condition Application when the petition is filed. USCIS has warned of extra scrutiny, denial or revocation where post-selection changes look designed to game the weights — so claim only a wage your employer will genuinely pay.
Past H1B Selection Rates (FY2021–FY2026)
Your odds in any season are mostly a function of pool size: USCIS selects roughly 120,000–190,000 registrations to fill 85,000 visas (selecting extra because some winners never file or are denied). FY2026 illustrates the math — 120,141 selected from 343,981 eligible registrations (34.9%), the friendliest rate in years, driven by a 27% smaller pool after the fee jumped from $10 to $215 and the beneficiary-centric rule crushed duplicates (only 7,828 multi-registrations vs 408,891 in FY2024). Unique beneficiaries fell about 20% while participating employers actually rose 9% to roughly 57,600.
| Cap season | Eligible registrations | Selected | Selection rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 269,424 | 124,415 | 46.2% |
| FY2022 | 301,447 | 131,924 | 43.8% |
| FY2023 | 474,421 | 127,600 | 26.9% |
| FY2024 | 758,994 | 188,400 | 24.8% |
| FY2025 | 470,342 | 135,137 | 28.7% |
| FY2026 | 343,981 | 120,141 | 34.9% |
One caution for 2026 planners: these historic rates come from the random era. Under weighting, the average rate still anchors the pool, but Level IV registrants will run well above it and Level I registrants well below it — exactly what this calculator models. Also note USCIS reached the FY2027 cap without a second lottery round, so plan on a single draw.
How This Calculator Estimates Your Odds
The math is transparent on purpose. Step 1: take the selected season's eligible registrations and multiply by an assumed average of 2 entries per beneficiary to get the weighted pool (about 688,000 entries for FY2026). Step 2: divide selections by that pool for the per-entry hit rate (about 17.5% for FY2026). Step 3: your registration's entries (wage weight × number of registering employers) convert to a regular-draw chance via 1 − (1 − p)^entries — so Level II with one employer gives 1 − 0.825² ≈ 32%, and Level IV gives ≈ 54%. Step 4 (US master's only): unselected advanced-degree holders get a second draw for the 20,000 master's cap, modeled here as roughly a 27% second chance (28,000 projected master's selections against an assumed 30% master's share of the pool), combined as P = P_regular + (1 − P_regular) × P_masters. Every assumption is printed under your result, and you can switch base seasons to see how pool size moves the needle.
How to Improve Your H1B Lottery Odds
Raise the offered wage level. Moving from Level I to Level IV roughly quadruples your selection weight — the single biggest lever in the 2026 system, provided the employer genuinely pays that wage through the petition. Earn a US master's degree. The dual lottery (regular draw first, then the master's-only draw) is the second-biggest lever and stacks with wage weight. Secure legitimate multiple employers. Two or three genuine, independent job offers each contributing weighted entries raise your combined chance — but only real offers; USCIS targets collusive or paid parallel filings. Pick high-wage work locations and precise SOC codes carefully. Because weights key off prevailing wage for your occupation and area, the same salary can clear a higher level in a lower-wage metro — your attorney should map this honestly. File a clean, complete registration. Errors, mismatched details and missed windows waste the $215 and the whole season. And keep a backup plan: cap-exempt employers (universities, nonprofits, research organizations), the L1 route for intracompany transferees, or next year's draw — track timelines with our H1B processing time tracker.
H1B Lottery Odds FAQs
Can two different employers register me for the H1B lottery?
Yes, two or more legitimate employers with genuine job offers can each submit a registration for you. Since the FY2025 beneficiary-centric rule, multiple registrations no longer multiply your odds the way they once did, and under the 2026 wage-weighted system your entries depend on the offered wage level. Never pay for fake parallel filings — USCIS denies or revokes registrations tied to fraud.
Does a higher wage really improve H1B lottery odds in 2026?
Yes. Under the final rule effective February 27, 2026, each registration gets 1 entry at wage Level I, 2 at Level II, 3 at Level III and 4 at Level IV, based on the DOL prevailing wage for your occupation and work location. More entries mean proportionally better odds — a Level IV registration has roughly four times the selection weight of a Level I one.
What are my chances with a US master's degree?
US master's (or higher) degree holders get two chances: they are included in the regular 65,000-cap draw first, and if not selected there, they enter the separate 20,000 master's-cap draw. Historically this dual lottery adds roughly 15–25 percentage points to overall odds versus a bachelor's-only registration at the same wage level.
What was the H1B selection rate for FY2026?
USCIS selected 120,141 of 343,981 eligible registrations for FY2026 — a 34.9% selection rate. That was up from 28.7% in FY2025 (135,137 of 470,342) because the registration pool shrank about 27% after the fee rose to $215 and the beneficiary-centric rule cut duplicate filings.
How much does H1B lottery registration cost?
The electronic registration fee is $215 per beneficiary, raised from $10 starting with the FY2026 season. It is paid by the sponsoring employer when submitting the registration, and it is non-refundable whether or not you are selected.
When is the H1B lottery registration window?
For the FY2027 cap season under the new weighted system, registration ran March 4–19, 2026, with selections announced by March 31, 2026. The window is typically about two to three weeks each March — your employer must submit within it; late entries are not accepted.
What happens after I am selected in the H1B lottery?
Selection only gives your employer the right to file a full H1B cap petition (Form I-129), usually April 1–June 30 with the selection notice attached. USCIS then adjudicates the petition on its merits — job specialty, qualifications, wage and employer eligibility. Only an approved petition leads to H1B status.
If selected, when can I start working on H1B?
New cap-subject H1B employment can begin no earlier than October 1 of the fiscal year — October 1, 2026 for the FY2027 season. If you already hold valid status (such as F-1 OPT), cap-gap provisions may extend your work authorization until that date.
Can a registration below wage Level I still be entered?
Yes. If the offered wage is below the Level I prevailing wage but is supported by an acceptable alternative wage source, the employer may still register the candidate — that registration simply gets a single entry, the same as Level I. The wage, occupation code and location must then match the Labor Condition Application at petition stage.
How accurate is this H1B lottery calculator?
It is a planning estimate, not a prediction: it applies the published wage weights to the last completed season's pool size and states its assumptions openly, but nobody knows the FY2027 pool size or wage mix in advance. Treat the percentage as a rough sense of scale. This page is general information only and is not legal advice — confirm strategy with a qualified immigration attorney.
How We Fact-Checked This Calculator
All inputs were checked on October 4, 2026 against USCIS and DHS publications: the wage-weighted final rule (Federal Register, December 29, 2025; effective February 27, 2026; Level IV ×4, Level III ×3, Level II ×2, Level I ×1); the FY2027 registration window of March 4–19, 2026 with selections by March 31 and petition filing April 1–June 30; the $215 registration fee (effective FY2026); FY2026 statistics of 343,981 eligible registrations with 120,141 selections (34.9%); and the 65,000 regular plus 20,000 master's cap structure with the regular draw first. Pool-size and wage-mix assumptions are our own transparent modeling, not government figures.