Green Card Backlog Estimator (October 2026)
How many years until your green card? Enter your category, country and priority date for an honest range — free, from the October 2026 Visa Bulletin.
Your estimated green card wait
| Detail | Value |
|---|
Rough estimate only, from October 2026 Final Action Dates and conservative recent movement paces. The bulletin moves both ways — EB-2 India retrogressed 10+ months in June 2026 and went unavailable before reopening in October — so any estimate can break. Filing under Dates for Filing (which USCIS is honoring for EB cases in October 2026) may let you file I-485 far sooner than approval. Not legal advice.
How the Green Card Backlog Works
US law caps employment-based green cards at a minimum of 140,000 per year, and the 7% per-country limit (about 25,620 green cards per country per year across family and employment categories) applies equally to every country. When applicants from a country exceed its 7% share, a queue forms, ordered strictly by priority date — usually the day your PERM labor certification or I-140 petition was filed. That is the whole story behind the decades-long India backlog: Indian applicants vastly outnumber 7% of the worldwide supply, while low-demand countries never hit their share and stay current. For month-to-month tracking, follow our Visa Bulletin tracker.
Each month the State Department publishes two charts. Final Action Dates decide when your green card can actually be approved — your priority date must be earlier than the cutoff. Dates for Filing (always later) decide when you may submit Form I-485 early; USCIS announces each month which chart you may use, and for employment-based cases in October 2026 it is honoring Dates for Filing, so many applicants can file — and get work permits — well before final approval. India-specific EB-3 movement is covered in our EB-3 India priority date guide, overall waits in our green card processing time guide, and the I-485 and work-permit stages in our I-485 processing time and EAD processing time guides.
October 2026 Cutoff Dates Used by This Estimator
These are the October 2026 (FY2027) Final Action Dates — the approval cutoffs your priority date is measured against. “C” means current: no wait at all.
| Category | Rest of world | China | India | Mexico | Philippines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 | C | 1 Jul 2023 | 1 Feb 2023 | C | C |
| EB-2 | 1 Jan 2025 | 1 Oct 2021 | 1 Nov 2013 | 1 Jan 2025 | 1 Jan 2025 |
| EB-3 | 15 May 2024 | 8 Jan 2022 | 1 Jan 2014 | 15 May 2024 | 15 Aug 2023 |
| Category | Rest of world | China | India | Mexico | Philippines |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | 22 Jan 2020 | 22 Jan 2020 | 22 Jan 2020 | 8 Sep 2008 | 1 Nov 2013 |
| F2A | 22 Sep 2026 | 22 Sep 2026 | 22 Sep 2026 | 22 Mar 2026 | 22 Sep 2026 |
| F2B | 22 Aug 2019 | 22 Aug 2019 | 22 Aug 2019 | 15 May 2010 | 1 Oct 2013 |
| F3 | 22 Oct 2014 | 22 Oct 2014 | 22 Oct 2014 | 1 Jul 2001 | 22 Jul 2006 |
| F4 | 22 Oct 2011 | 22 Oct 2011 | 15 Dec 2006 | 22 Apr 2001 | 15 May 2008 |
Note the October pattern: new-fiscal-year numbers let backlogged cutoffs jump forward (EB-2 India reopened at November 2013 after being unavailable through September), while worldwide EB-2/EB-3 retrogressed to protect annual limits — the bulletin genuinely moves both ways.
How Your Wait Estimate Is Calculated
The estimator does simple, honest division. Step 1: count the months between your priority date and the October 2026 cutoff — that is your backlog (an EB-2 India June 2018 date sits about 55 months behind the November 2013 cutoff). Step 2: divide by a conservative recent pace of cutoff movement for your lane, expressed as months of movement per calendar year. Step 3: report a range (slow pace → long end, fast pace → short end) instead of a false single number. Paces below are deliberately cautious, drawn from 2025–2026 bulletin behavior including long static stretches:
| Lane | Assumed pace (cutoff months / year) | Why |
|---|---|---|
| EB-1 India / China | 6–12 | Advanced 3.5 months in Oct 2026 alone, but retrogressed mid-2026 |
| EB-2 India | 4–10 | Moved ~2 months across mid-2026, then 10+ month retrogression |
| EB-2 China | 3–8 | Advanced 1 month in Oct 2026 after months static |
| EB-3 India / China | 2–6 | EB-3 India sat at Jan 2014 for months; slow lanes |
| EB-3 Philippines / near-current EB | 6–12 | Small backlogs clear within a year or two |
| F1 / F2B / F3 | 2–6 | Family lanes crawl a few months per year |
| F4 | 1–4 | Slowest lane; Mexico/India waits span decades |
| F2A | 12 | Effectively current for all practical purposes |
Two warnings that matter more than the arithmetic. First, retrogression is normal: June 2026 pushed EB-2 India back more than 10 months and made it unavailable, wiping out a year of “progress” overnight — your backlog in months can grow even as time passes. Second, filing is not approval: with USCIS honoring Dates for Filing for EB cases in October 2026 (EB-2 India filing at January 15, 2015; EB-3 India filing at January 15, 2015; EB-3 ROW filing at August 1, 2024), you may be able to file I-485 and get a work permit years before your Final Action estimate resolves.
Category Guides: What Each Lane Means
EB-1 (priority workers: extraordinary ability, outstanding professors/researchers, multinational executives) is the fastest employment lane — current worldwide except India and China, which carry 3-year backlogs. EB-2 (advanced degrees, exceptional ability, NIW) is the great divide: near-current for most countries, a ~13-year queue for India. EB-3 (skilled workers, professionals, other workers) runs slightly behind EB-2 for India but occasionally leapfrogs it, which is where downgrade strategy lives — see our EB-3 India guide. On the family side, F2A (spouses and minor children of green card holders) is effectively current everywhere; F1/F2B run 6–13 years; F3 runs 12–25 years for Mexico and the Philippines; and F4 siblings of US citizens face the longest waits on earth — Mexico's line starts in April 2001, a quarter-century back.
What to Do While You Wait
File I-485 the month you can. Check every monthly bulletin against both charts — filing the day your Dates for Filing allow unlocks everything below. Get EAD/AP combo benefits. A pending I-485 lets you seek an Employment Authorization Document and Advance Parole travel permit, freeing you from employer-tied status; watch current waits in our EAD guide and I-485 guide. Use AC21 portability. After 180 days of pending I-485, you may move to a same-or-similar job without restarting the case — but do it with attorney guidance, not alone. Consider EB-2/EB-3 downgrade or upgrade filings to keep the earlier of two priority dates alive. Protect children from aging out via CSPA calculations on every movement. And keep status lawful the entire time — the backlog forgives nothing, but it rewards the prepared: track each bulletin with our Visa Bulletin tracker and overall timelines via our green card processing time guide.
Green Card Backlog FAQs
How many years is the EB-2 India green card wait in October 2026?
With the October 2026 Final Action cutoff at November 1, 2013, an EB-2 India applicant with a 2018 priority date faces roughly 55 months of backlog. At the conservative recent pace of 4–10 months of cutoff movement per year, that is about a 6–14 year wait — and retrogression can stretch it further. Use the estimator above with your exact priority date.
What does it mean when my category is current in the Visa Bulletin?
Current (C) means no backlog: visas are immediately available for everyone in that category and country, regardless of priority date. In October 2026 this includes EB-1 for the rest of the world, Mexico and the Philippines. If you are current and otherwise eligible, you can file or be approved without waiting for a cutoff to reach you.
What is the difference between Final Action Dates and Dates for Filing?
Final Action Dates control when your green card can actually be approved; Dates for Filing (always later) control when you may submit your adjustment application early. In October 2026, USCIS is honoring the Dates for Filing chart for employment-based cases, so many applicants can file I-485 months or years before approval — which can secure work permits while you wait.
Can the Visa Bulletin move backward (retrogress)?
Yes, and it happens regularly. In June 2026, EB-2 India retrogressed more than 10 months to September 1, 2013 and then went unavailable for the rest of the fiscal year; EB-1 India also retrogressed three and a half months. That is why every estimate on this page is a range, and why a priority date that looks close can still take years.
What is AC21 job portability while my green card is pending?
Under AC21, if your I-485 adjustment application has been pending 180 days or more, you may change to a same or similar job with a new employer without restarting the green card process. This is a key reason to file I-485 as soon as your Dates for Filing allow — it unlocks portability plus work and travel permits.
Can I work while waiting for my priority date to become current?
Once you are eligible to file Form I-485 (under Final Action or Dates for Filing, whichever USCIS honors that month), you can also apply for an Employment Authorization Document (EAD) and Advance Parole travel permit. Check current waits in our EAD processing time guide. Before you can file I-485, you must maintain some other valid status to live and work in the US.
Should I downgrade from EB-2 to EB-3 to get my green card faster?
Sometimes. When EB-3 India runs ahead of EB-2 India, filing a second I-140 in EB-3 while keeping your old priority date (downgrade) can mean earlier filing or approval — but the advantage flips over time, and in October 2026 EB-2 India (Nov 2013) is only slightly behind EB-3 India (Jan 2014). Get attorney advice on your exact dates before paying for a second petition.
Why is the wait so much longer for India than other countries?
The 7% per-country limit (about 25,620 green cards per country per year across family and employment categories) applies equally to every country, so high-demand countries oversubscribe their share. India sends far more employment-based applicants than 7% of the worldwide total, creating a queue measured in years or decades, while low-demand countries stay current.
Do my children age out while we wait in the backlog?
They can, which is why the Child Status Protection Act (CSPA) matters: it freezes a child's age in certain calculations tied to visa availability. Long backlogs still create real age-out risk for EB-2 and EB-3 India families. Track your Dates for Filing closely, since filing I-485 can lock in protections — discuss CSPA math with your attorney.
How accurate is this green card backlog estimator?
It is a rough planning estimate, not a forecast: it divides your months of backlog by conservative recent paces of bulletin movement and states both. Congress could change the caps, demand could surge, or your category could retrogress — any of which breaks the math. This page is general information only and is not legal advice.
How We Fact-Checked This Estimator
Cutoff dates were checked on October 4, 2026 against the State Department's October 2026 (FY2027) Visa Bulletin and Fragomen's analysis: EB-1 ROW current, China July 1, 2023, India February 1, 2023; EB-2 ROW/Mexico/Philippines January 1, 2025, China October 1, 2021, India November 1, 2013; EB-3 ROW/Mexico May 15, 2024, China January 8, 2022, India January 1, 2014, Philippines August 15, 2023; family charts F1–F4 as listed above (F2A Mexico March 22, 2026; all other F2A September 22, 2026). Pace assumptions are our own conservative modeling from 2025–2026 bulletin movement, including the June 2026 EB-2 India retrogression — not government figures. USCIS is honoring Dates for Filing for employment-based I-485s in October 2026.