Schengen Visa Rejection Risk Checker (2026)
Estimate your Schengen refusal chances from 2024 country statistics plus your travel history, job, funds and ties. Free risk band with 3 personalised fix tips.
Your estimated rejection risk
Your top 3 fix-tips
Estimate only, not legal advice. Compare your odds with the 2026 Schengen rejection-rate guide, budget with the Schengen visa cost guide, and strengthen ties using proving ties to your home country.
Check Your Schengen Visa Rejection Risk Before You Pay the Fee
Every Schengen application costs a non-refundable fee, so checking your Schengen visa rejection risk before you file is simple common sense. This free checker estimates your Schengen visa chances by combining two things consulates actually weigh: the published 2024 refusal rate for your nationality and the five profile factors officers score in every interview-free, paper-based decision — travel history, employment and funds, ties to home, and previous refusals. Answer five questions and you get an estimated risk band (Low, Medium or High) plus three personalised actions that target your weakest answers.
Why does nationality matter so much? In 2024 the Schengen states received 11.7 million short-stay applications and refused 14.8% worldwide, but the spread was enormous: Bangladesh (54.9%), Pakistan (47.5%) and Nigeria (45.9%) faced refusal rates ten times higher than China (4.6%) or the Philippines (6.1%). Your passport sets the starting point — your file decides how far below that starting point you land. A first-time applicant from a high-refusal country with weak funds can face estimated odds above 70%, while a salaried Indian IT employee with compliant US travel can sit near 5%. For the full country picture see our Schengen rejection rate 2026 guide, and for Americans start with the Schengen visa guide for US citizens.
Schengen Rejection Rates 2024 by Nationality (European Commission)
The table below uses the European Commission's 2024 short-stay visa statistics — the same base rates this checker starts from. Application volumes are included so you can see which figures rest on the largest samples.
| Nationality (applications lodged) | Applications | Refusal rate 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh | 39,345 | 54.9% |
| Pakistan | 78,362 | 47.5% |
| Nigeria | 111,201 | 45.9% |
| Algeria | 544,634 | 35.0% |
| Egypt | 209,438 | 25.7% |
| Morocco | 606,800 | 20.1% |
| India | 1,108,239 | 15.0% |
| Turkiye | 1,173,917 | 14.5% |
| Vietnam | 110,093 | 10.8% |
| Philippines | 218,301 | 6.1% |
| China | 1,779,255 | 4.6% |
| Worldwide average | 11,716,723 | 14.8% |
Rates cover uniform short-stay (type C) visas decided in 2024. Year-to-year movement is normal — for example Turkiye improved from 16.1% in 2023 to 14.5% in 2024, while Bangladesh rose from 43.3% to 54.9%.
Why Schengen Visas Get Refused
Refusal letters cite standard Article 32 grounds, but nearly every refusal traces back to one of five doubts in the officer's mind. First, purpose and itinerary not credible: a vague plan, mismatched bookings, or a first-time traveller requesting 30 days across six countries signals risk. Second, insufficient or suspicious funds: low balances, lump-sum deposits just before applying, or statements that do not match declared income. Third, intention to leave not established: weak employment, no family or property anchors, or a profile the officer reads as a potential overstayer. Fourth, history problems: prior overstays, undisclosed refusals, or inconsistent statements across applications. Fifth, missing basics: no compliant travel medical insurance (minimum 30,000 EUR cover), wrong consulate, or an unsigned form. The good news is that the first, second, third and fifth causes are fully fixable with paperwork — which is exactly what this checker's tips target. Budget the real trip cost alongside the fee using our Schengen visa cost 2026 breakdown, and if you are combining destinations, plan the route with our tourist visa complete guide.
How This Risk Checker Scores You (Transparent Methodology)
We publish the full scoring so you can judge the estimate — that transparency is the point. Step 1 — base rate: your nationality's 2024 refusal rate from the table above (or the 14.8% worldwide average for unlisted nationalities). Step 2 — travel history adjustment: multiple compliant Schengen visas −6 points; one past Schengen/UK/US visa −4; a UK/US/Canada visa −3; no travel history +4. Step 3 — employment and funds: stable salaried job with healthy statements −4; self-employed with good records −1; irregular income or weak balance +5; unemployed or no proof +8. Step 4 — ties: strong ties −3; moderate ties −1; weak ties +5. Step 5 — refusals: a refusal in the last 2 years +10; an older refusal +5; none +0. The result is clamped between 1% and 95% and banded as Low (under 10%), Medium (10-30%) or High (30% and above). Worked example: an Indian applicant (15.0 base) with a used US visa (−3), a salaried job (−4) and strong ties (−3) scores about 5% — Low. A first-time Pakistani freelancer (47.5 base, +4 no history, −1 self-employed, +5 weak ties) scores about 55% — High. These are estimates for planning, not predictions: officers weigh documents individually, and no tool can guarantee an outcome.
What to Do for Each Risk Band
Low band (under 10%): file with confidence but do not get careless — keep every document consistent, attach compliant insurance, and apply at the correct consulate 4-8 weeks before travel. Medium band (10-30%): treat the trip as winnable but fragile; fix at least your top tip before paying the fee, shorten an over-ambitious itinerary, and add one extra anchor document such as an employer no-objection letter. High band (30%+): do not file yet if you can avoid it. High estimates usually combine a high base rate with weak funds or ties, so spend 2-3 months building statements, collecting ties evidence and possibly taking a smaller compliant trip first. Read how to prove ties to your home country and re-run the checker after each improvement — watching the estimate fall is the cheapest confidence you can buy.
Schengen Rejection Risk FAQs
How accurate is this Schengen rejection risk checker?
It is a planning estimate, not a prediction. It starts from your nationality's published 2024 refusal rate and adjusts for travel history, employment, ties and prior refusals. Real decisions depend on the consular officer and your exact documents, so treat the band as a guide for where to strengthen your file.
What is the Schengen visa rejection rate for Indians in 2024?
India's 2024 Schengen refusal rate was 15.0%: 1,108,239 applications with 936,748 visas issued, just above the 14.8% worldwide average. Strong travel history and stable employment typically push an individual file well below that average.
Which nationality has the highest Schengen rejection rate?
Bangladesh had the highest 2024 refusal rate at 54.9%, followed by Pakistan at 47.5% and Nigeria at 45.9%. At the other end, China (4.6%) and the Philippines (6.1%) had among the lowest rates of major applicant countries.
Why do Schengen visas get refused?
The most common grounds are an unconvincing travel purpose, insufficient proof of funds, doubts you will leave before the visa expires, and weak ties to your home country. Previous overstays, undisclosed refusals and missing travel insurance also trigger refusals.
Does a previous Schengen refusal mean automatic rejection?
No. A prior refusal raises scrutiny but each application is decided on its own file. Disclose the refusal, explain what changed with fresh evidence, and many applicants are approved on reapplication.
Does travel history to the US or UK lower Schengen refusal risk?
Yes. Compliant travel to the US, UK, Canada or previous Schengen states is one of the strongest positive signals, because it proves you respect visa conditions. First-time travellers face higher scrutiny and should over-document itinerary, funds and ties.
How much bank balance do I need for a Schengen visa?
There is no fixed minimum: consulates look for stable, genuine funds covering the trip plus a buffer, usually 3-6 months of statements. A steady salary balance beats a large lump-sum deposit made just before applying, which officers treat as a red flag.
Can I reapply after a Schengen visa refusal?
Yes, you can reapply immediately unless the refusal letter states a ban. Fix the stated ground first, add new evidence, and address the refusal openly in your cover letter. Reapplying with an unchanged file usually repeats the refusal.
Do first-time travellers get refused more often?
First-time travellers are refused more often because they cannot show a compliance record. A short, well-documented first trip with confirmed bookings, insurance and strong ties offsets much of that disadvantage.
Is this checker legal advice?
No. It is a free informational estimate for planning only. Visa decisions are made by consular officers under the EU Visa Code. For complex cases such as prior bans or overstays, consult a qualified immigration adviser.
How We Fact-Checked This Checker
All base rates were checked on October 4, 2026 against the European Commission's 2024 Schengen visa statistics (11,716,723 applications, 14.8% refused worldwide): Bangladesh 54.9%, Pakistan 47.5%, Nigeria 45.9%, Algeria 35.0%, Egypt 25.7%, Morocco 20.1%, India 15.0%, Turkiye 14.5%, Vietnam 10.8%, Philippines 6.1%, China 4.6%. The scoring adjustments reflect widely documented consular risk factors (travel compliance, stable funds, home ties, refusal history) and are estimates, not official weights — no consulate publishes its internal scoring.