Visa Chances by Country: Approval Odds for 2026
Evidence-based chances guides pairing every passport with its most-searched destinations — refusal rates, exact fees and the documents that decide the outcome
Schengen Visa Chances
The Schengen area publishes the most complete refusal data of any destination, which makes these the most measurable chances in the hub. In 2024 the global short-stay refusal rate was 14.8%, with wide variation by applicant nationality and by member state — Malta refused 38.5% while Iceland refused 6.6%. The standard fee is EUR 90 for adults and EUR 45 for children aged 6–11.
| Passport | Guide | Published Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Afghan | Schengen Visa Chances for Afghan Passport Holders | Embassy-limited access; EU-wide 14.8% refusal baseline |
| Indian | Schengen Visa Chances for Indian Passport Holders | India: 1,108,239 applications at ~15.0% refusal |
| Turkish | Schengen Visa Chances for Turkish Passport Holders | Türkiye: 1,173,917 applications at ~14.5% refusal |
US Visa Chances
US non-immigrant visa refusal is published by nationality each quarter in the Department of State's Adjudication Data — B-1/B-2 adjusted refusal rates run far higher than Schengen's. The MRV fee is USD 185, and appointment wait times vary sharply by post, which is why each guide pairs approval context with the current wait.
| Passport | Guide | Published Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Turkish | US B-1/B-2 Visa for Turkish Passport Holders | Quarterly State Dept refusal data by nationality |
| Filipino | US Tourist Visa Chances for Filipino Passport Holders | Philippines FY25 adjusted refusal 30.76% |
UK & Canada Visa Chances
The UK publishes grant-rate statistics by nationality and visa type each quarter — the Standard Visitor fee rose to GBP 135 on 8 April 2026. Canada publishes monthly decision volumes for visitor visas but not nationality-level approval rates, so its guides state that honestly instead of inventing a number.
| Passport | Guide | Published Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Nepali | UK Standard Visitor Visa for Nepali Passport Holders | UK quarterly grant rates; 80% of visit visas granted YE June 2026 |
| Russian | Canada Visitor Visa Chances for Russian Passport Holders | IRCC monthly decision data; CAD 100 fee |
Australia, Japan, Germany & UAE Visa Chances
| Passport | Destination | Guide |
|---|---|---|
| Russian | Australia | Australia Visa Chances for Russian Passport Holders |
| Russian | Japan | Japan Visa Chances for Russian Citizens |
| Indian | Japan | Japan Visa Chances for Indians |
| Nigerian | Germany | Germany Student Visa Chances for Nigerian Passport Holders |
| Nigerian | UAE | Dubai (UAE) Visa Chances for Nigerian Passport Holders |
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I know my real visa chances?
Start with three signals: whether your passport needs a visa at all, the official refusal or approval rate for your nationality, and how complete your document file is. Each VisaGrade chances guide combines all three so you can judge your profile before you pay a fee.
Are these visa chances guides free to use?
Yes. Every guide in this hub is free, ad-supported and updated for 2026. There is no registration and no paid tier.
Do visa refusal rates predict my own outcome?
No. Published refusal rates are averages across every applicant, including incomplete files. They set expectations for a nationality-destination pair, but your own decision depends on your ties to your home country, finances and travel history.
How often are these visa chances pages updated?
Each page carries a dateModified stamp. Fees, processing rules and published statistics are re-verified whenever official sources change, and at minimum each year when annual immigration statistics are released.
Which passport-destination pairs are covered next?
The hub launches with the 12 highest-demand pairs from our search data: Afghan, Russian, Turkish, Nepali, Indian, Filipino and Nigerian passports travelling to the Schengen area, USA, UK, Canada, Australia, Japan, Germany and the UAE. More pairs are added weekly based on live search demand.